# Salammbô predictions of the storm-time electron belt population

The prediction of the radiation electron belt dynamics during storm periods is an important cornerstone of space weather forecasting.DESP has developed the Salammbô-3D code to understand the radiation belt dynamics by solving a classical Fokker-Planck diffusion equation in the (E, a0, L) space as a function of time. In the framework of the TREND, Salammbô-3D results have been confronted to in situ data for several magnetic storms during two periods of time for which sufficient data were available. The first period corresponds to the CRRES mission for which data from Meteosat-3, GOES-6 and GOES-7 spacecrafts are also available. Comparisons between CRRES/MEA measurements and Salammbô-3D simulations have been used to include a temporal variation of the radial diffusion coefficients and of the plasmapause location into the Salammbô model. The final results for the four storms studied during this period show good agreements between measurements and simulations.

The second period corresponds to the conjunction of the Strv-1b, Meteosat-3, GOES-7 and WIND missions. The Salammbô-3D model used for this period corresponds to the model used for the CRRES analysis: no new developments are introduced. Salammbô-3D results and Strv-1b/REM measurements were confronted to evaluate the Salammbô-3D capabilities to reproduce the dynamics of electrons with energies above the CRRES/MEA energy range (50-2200 keV). The comparison gives the opportunity to determine the strengths and weaknesses of this type of theoretical model in predicting the space environment for space weather applications.